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Table 3 Results

From: The natural course of low back pain: a systematic critical literature review

At Baseline Reference N° Development of LBP over time Comments
Stable Fluctuating Worsening Improving
No LBP [8] No LBP at BL was highly predictive of future absence of pain throughout 8 surveys over 2 years    NA  
[9] 45% with no pain at 3 surveys over 5 years    NA  
[10] 70% no pain at second survey and 57% at 3rd survey over 8 years    NA  
[11] 67% and63% respectively no pain at 2nd and 3rd survey over 28 years   64% had LBP at the 4th survey (28 years later) NA  
[12] NA NA NA NA Not applicable: all participants were chosen because they had LBP
[13] The most frequent course was no BP each year over 5 years (35%)    NA  
[14] - 29% of the population was free of LBP at 3 surveys over 10 years   - 11% developed long standing LBP at 2nd and 3rd survey over 10 years NA  
- 62% never had long standing LBP at 3 surveys over 10 years
[15] Stable (visual analysis)     
Presence of LBP [8] Presence of LBP at BL was highly predictive of future pain throughout 8 surveys over 2 years     
[9] If >30 days of LBP at BL: 39% in the same category after 1 and 5 years If 1–30 days of LBP at BL: 62% fluctuated to the neighboring groups over 5 years    
[10] 38% have the same intensity of LBP at 3 surveys over 8 years 27% of LBP (intensity) fluctuated; movements between extremes groups were rare (12%) at 3 surveys over 8 years 17% of LBP (intensity) increased at 3 surveys over 8 years 19% of LBP (intensity) decreased at 3 surveys over 8 years  
[11] 75, 73 and 88% were symptomatic at 3 FUs over 28 years     
31% of the subjects reported LBP in all 4 surveys
[12] Stability of severity and frequency of LBP was high in 4 periods over 1 year    3% reported no pain after BL throughout the weekly surveys over one year  
[13] The most frequent course was BP each year over 5 years (14%)     
[14] 6% had long standing LBP at 3 surveys over 10 years 11% had long standing LBP only at some surveys over 10 years   10% had recovered from long lasting low back pain at 2nd and 3rd survey  
[15] For those who had more than 8 days of BP during that first year (visual analysis) For those who have between 1–7 days of BP the first year of the 5-yr study period (visual analysis)    
  1. LBP: Low back pain; FU: Follow-up; BL: Baseline; NA: Not Applicable.