Table 3 Results
From: The natural course of low back pain: a systematic critical literature review
At Baseline | Reference N° | Development of LBP over time | Comments | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stable | Fluctuating | Worsening | Improving | |||
No LBP | [8] | No LBP at BL was highly predictive of future absence of pain throughout 8 surveys over 2 years | NA | |||
[9] | 45% with no pain at 3 surveys over 5 years | NA | ||||
[10] | 70% no pain at second survey and 57% at 3rd survey over 8 years | NA | ||||
[11] | 67% and63% respectively no pain at 2nd and 3rd survey over 28 years | 64% had LBP at the 4th survey (28 years later) | NA | |||
[12] | NA | NA | NA | NA | Not applicable: all participants were chosen because they had LBP | |
[13] | The most frequent course was no BP each year over 5 years (35%) | NA | ||||
[14] | - 29% of the population was free of LBP at 3 surveys over 10 years | - 11% developed long standing LBP at 2nd and 3rd survey over 10 years | NA | |||
- 62% never had long standing LBP at 3 surveys over 10 years | ||||||
[15] | Stable (visual analysis) | |||||
Presence of LBP | [8] | Presence of LBP at BL was highly predictive of future pain throughout 8 surveys over 2 years | ||||
[9] | If >30 days of LBP at BL: 39% in the same category after 1 and 5 years | If 1–30 days of LBP at BL: 62% fluctuated to the neighboring groups over 5 years | ||||
[10] | 38% have the same intensity of LBP at 3 surveys over 8 years | 27% of LBP (intensity) fluctuated; movements between extremes groups were rare (12%) at 3 surveys over 8 years | 17% of LBP (intensity) increased at 3 surveys over 8 years | 19% of LBP (intensity) decreased at 3 surveys over 8 years | ||
[11] | 75, 73 and 88% were symptomatic at 3 FUs over 28 years | |||||
31% of the subjects reported LBP in all 4 surveys | ||||||
[12] | Stability of severity and frequency of LBP was high in 4 periods over 1 year | 3% reported no pain after BL throughout the weekly surveys over one year | ||||
[13] | The most frequent course was BP each year over 5 years (14%) | |||||
[14] | 6% had long standing LBP at 3 surveys over 10 years | 11% had long standing LBP only at some surveys over 10 years | 10% had recovered from long lasting low back pain at 2nd and 3rd survey | |||
[15] | For those who had more than 8 days of BP during that first year (visual analysis) | For those who have between 1–7 days of BP the first year of the 5-yr study period (visual analysis) | ||||