Multivariable prediction models for the recovery of and claim closure related to post-collision neck pain and associated disorders

Table 2 Harrel’s C-statistics by predictive model

Modeling Stage	Predictive Model	Phase of prognostic factor evidence	Time to recovery C-statistic (95% CI)	Time to claim closure C-statistic (95% CI)
Development	Stage 1	Phase III	0.626 (0.617, 0.636)	0.598 (0.588, 0.607)
Development	Stage 2	Phase I-III	0.644 (0.634, 0.653)	0.636 (0.626, 0.645)
Internal Validation (Bootstrapped models)	Stage 1	Phase III	0.626 (0.617, 0.636)	0.598 (0.588, 0.600)
Internal Validation (Bootstrapped models)	Stage 2	Phase I-III	0.644 (0.634, 0.653)	0.636 (0.626, 0.645)
External validation in Ontario	Stage 2	Phase I-III	0.654 (0.617, 0.692)	0.580 (0.539, 0.621)

CI = Confidence Interval; Stage 3 models did not significantly improve the predictive ability of Stage 1 and 2 models with the C-statistic ranging from 0.64–0.65 for both time to recovery and time to claim closure

ISSN: 2045-709X