Multivariable prediction models for the recovery of and claim closure related to post-collision neck pain and associated disorders

Table 4 Clinical Prediction Models with Significant Prognostic Factors for Time to Claim Closure

	Stage 1	Stage 2
Baseline prognostic factor	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)
Age in years	-	0.999 (0.99, 0.99)
Prior neck injury claim with SGI	0.71 (0.66, 0.77)	0.776 (0.72, 0.84)
Post-collision Anxiety or Worry	0.85 (0.80, 0.91)	-
Depression as > 27 on CES-D	0.82 (0.75, 0.90)	0.99 (0.99, 0.99)
Pain Drawing - Percentage	-	0.97 (0.96, 0.99)
Neck pain intensity (NRS)	-	0.98 (0.97, 0.99)
Headache intensity (NRS)	-	0.78 (0.72, 0.85)
Disability	-	0.91 (0.84, 1.00)
Expectations of recovery
Never get better	0.36 (0.26, 0.50)	0.41 (0.30, 0.58)
Get better slowly	0.74 (0.68, 0.80)	0.82 (0.76, 0.89)
Don’t know	0.56 (0.51, 0.61)	0.64 (0.59, 0.71)

* Abbreviations CI = confidence interval; SGI = Saskatchewan Government Insurance; HR = Hazards Rate
Stage 1 model included prognostic factors obtained from published phase III studies
Stage 2 model included prognostic factors obtained from published phase I and II studies
‡ Stage 3 models included clinically relevant variables not obtained from published evidence. Model composition varied and there are no final model betas to present

ISSN: 2045-709X